Goals and Methods of Estimating Energy Security Indicator Thresholds in Forecasts

Yu. D. Kononov ()
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Yu. D. Kononov: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, vol. 35, issue 1, 72-79

Abstract: Abstract This article considers the possibility of increasing the significance of long-term forecasts of the development of the FEC by taking into account the influence of its various industries on energy security (ES). This estimate is made using an integrated index which characterize the degree of deviation of specific ES indicators from their thresholds. Indicators characterizing the economic aspect of ES, which set depend on the considered perspective are proposed. Different methods of determining the maximal allowed values of the indicators are considered. Experimental calculation results are provided showing the interdependency of these values. It is showcased that the indicative analysis of thresholds must be preceded by the estimation of strategic ES threats and detecting the stable behavior region of the main forecast indicators.

Keywords: forecasting; fuel and energy complex; energy security; indicative analysis; strategic threats; macroeconomy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010064

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