Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Russia

E. Yu. Ablaev () and T. R. Magzhanov
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E. Yu. Ablaev: Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
T. R. Magzhanov: Moscow State University

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, vol. 35, issue 3, 337-346

Abstract: Abstract— The purpose of this work is to determine how much the presence of fiscal rules in Russia contributed to the implementation of the countercyclical fiscal policy. The study uses different specifications of ARDL models in order to obtain robust results based on quarterly data about primary federal budget expenditures and other indicators of the Russian economy over 2000–2021. During periods of validity of fiscal rules, primary federal budget expenditures were, on average, acyclical with respect to the phase of the business cycle. The termination of the fiscal rules determined the implementation of the countercyclical fiscal policy. Based on these results, it is concluded that fiscal rules aimed mainly at saving oil and gas revenues are unable to ensure the implementation of countercyclical fiscal policy in Russia.

Keywords: fiscal rules; countercyclical fiscal policy; output gap; Russia’s federal budget; oil and gas revenues (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1134/S107570072403002X

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