Experience of Applying Structural Approach to Scenario Planning for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development Using the Survey Method

D. R. Belousov and E. M. Sabel’nikova ()
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D. R. Belousov: Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
E. M. Sabel’nikova: Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, vol. 35, issue 4, 508-517

Abstract: Abstract— The article examines main approaches to creating scenarios for long-term socio-economic development and identifies their key advantages and disadvantages. The results of applying a structural approach to constructing scenarios using data from a survey of experts in the main areas of long-term socio-economic development are presented. A two-step procedure is proposed where the factors are ordered by significance for long-term development and relationships between them are identified. The resulting three scenarios are described.

Keywords: scenarios; forecast; structural method; socio-economic development; survey; factor analysis; factor dependence; level of relationship; clusters; matrix of relationships (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700060

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