Application of VAR Models to Assess the Impact of Budget Expenditures on GDP Dynamics

E. O. Matveev and I. A. Sokolov ()
Additional contact information
E. O. Matveev: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
I. A. Sokolov: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, vol. 35, issue 5, 657-666

Abstract: Abstract— This study uses the fiscal multiplier to evaluate the efficiency of government spending. The innovation of this work was the assessment of the VAR model of the Russian economy with time-varying coefficients and volatility parameters of macroeconomic indicators, which, unlike existing studies, made it possible to calculate the value of the budget multiplier separately for each year of the selected time interval (2005–2023) and describe its dynamics. Based on the calculation results, one can note a decrease in the efficiency of budget expenditures as their volume increases, which is especially noticeable during periods of crisis. The calculation of multipliers in the context of the main functional sections made it possible to identify the dependence of the efficiency of budget expenditures on their structure: the decrease in the efficiency of total expenditures in the period up to 2009 was mainly due to a drop in the return on social expenditures, and further dynamics were due to a rather rapid reduction in the positive impact on the economy from “power” spending.

Keywords: budget multiplier; budget policy; efficiency of budget expenditures; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700724700199 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700724700199

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... nomics/journal/11507

DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700199

Access Statistics for this article

Studies on Russian Economic Development is currently edited by Viktor V. Ivanter, Dmitrii B. Kuvalin and Galina A. Yaremenko

More articles in Studies on Russian Economic Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().