Signals Approach for Assessment and Prediction of Financial Stability of Russian Businesses

D. I. Pekhalskiy () and F. I. Minichev
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D. I. Pekhalskiy: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting
F. I. Minichev: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, vol. 35, issue 5, 753-762

Abstract: Abstract The article presents an assessment of financial stability of Russian industrial companies based on financial ratios calculated on the data from their accounting statements. The assessment uses a modified methodology of the signals approach, originally designed for early warning of currency crises. Based on the data about operating and bankrupt companies, thresholds crossing which increases the likelihood of bankruptcy are calculated for six financial ratios. The consolidated leading indicator of bankruptcy calculated basing on these thresholds correctly predicts bankruptcies in 91.5% cases and the absence of bankruptcies in 93.7% cases, in 2023.

Keywords: financial stability of businesses; financial ratios; bankruptcy prediction model; signals approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700291

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