Estimation of Potential GDP and Natural (Potential) Inflation Rate in Scenarios of Socio-Economic Development of Russia

I. B. Ipatova ()
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I. B. Ipatova: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2025, vol. 36, issue 5, 613-622

Abstract: Abstract Estimating potential GDP (output at full employment and efficient use of remaining resources) and the output gap (the deviation of actual GDP from potential) helps to decide on the need for stimulating or restraining measures to support the economy. This paper uses a multivariate Kalman filter to estimate unobservable components, including the natural (potential) inflation rate, in scenarios of Russia’s socio-economic development.

Keywords: potential GDP; output gap; multivariate Kalman filter; scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700725700340

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