Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity and income of commercial maize farms in northeast South Africa

Davide Cammarano (), Roberto O. Valdivia, Yacob G. Beletse, Wiltrud Durand, Olivier Crespo, Weldemichael A. Tesfuhuney, Matthew R. Jones, Sue Walker, Thembeka N. Mpuisang, Charles Nhemachena, Alex C. Ruane, Carolyn Mutter, Cynthia Rosenzweig and John Antle
Additional contact information
Davide Cammarano: The James Hutton Institute
Roberto O. Valdivia: Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University
Yacob G. Beletse: Agricultural Research Council-Roodeplaat Vegetable and Ornamental Plants
Wiltrud Durand: Agricultural Research Council
Olivier Crespo: University of Cape Town
Weldemichael A. Tesfuhuney: University of Free State
Matthew R. Jones: South African Sugarcane Research Institute
Sue Walker: University of Free State
Thembeka N. Mpuisang: Botswana College of Agriculture
Charles Nhemachena: Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa
Alex C. Ruane: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Carolyn Mutter: Columbia University, Earth Institute, Center for Climate Systems Research
Cynthia Rosenzweig: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
John Antle: Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2020, vol. 12, issue 3, No 14, 659-678

Abstract: Abstract Agriculture in South Africa sustains about 70% of the region’s population for food, income and employment, playing an important role for food security and the local economy. The focus of the study was the commercial maize farms of the Free State Province given their importance in the National economy. The Regional Integrated Assessment (phase I) was implemented to assess climate change and adaptation that links climate, crops, economic data and tools developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). In this context, the “system” is defined as a whole of agronomic and socio-economic factors. Within that framework three core questions were being evaluated: (i) Impacts of climate change under current system; (ii) Impacts of climate change under future system; (iii) The role of adaptation under climate change and the future system. Maize production will decrease between 10% to 16% as a result of projected climate impacts. Also, current agricultural production systems are negatively affected by climate change with an increase in poverty rates between 2% to 3%. The projected adoption of the adapted technology would result in positive increased net returns and a decrease in poverty rate of between 12% and 22%. The results of this study show that implementing adaptation measures, including strategies indicated by the local stakeholders, will have positive impacts on the agricultural production systems and can contribute to support and inform climate change policy decision making such as the development of National Adaptation Plans.

Keywords: Integrated assessment; Climate change; Crop modelling; Adaptation; Climate models; Economic modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-020-01023-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:12:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s12571-020-01023-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ulture/journal/12571

DOI: 10.1007/s12571-020-01023-0

Access Statistics for this article

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food is currently edited by R.N. Strange

More articles in Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food from Springer, The International Society for Plant Pathology
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().