Economics at your fingertips  

Impacts of China’s bioethanol policy on the global maize market: a partial equilibrium analysis to 2030

Xinru Han, Yongfu Chen () and Xiudong Wang
Additional contact information
Xinru Han: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Yongfu Chen: China Agricultural University
Xiudong Wang: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2022, vol. 14, issue 1, No 10, 147-163

Abstract: Abstract Maize is a major component of China’s cereal production. It is also one of the main feedstocks for China's bioethanol production. To ensure food security, there is flexibility in China’s ethanol policy. In this paper, we build a multicountry and multisector partial equilibrium model to simulate the possible impacts of biofuel policy on maize markets and food security. Considering normal macroeconomic conditions, China’s bioethanol promotion policy would result in a net increase in maize imports to 26 mmt in 2030. Meanwhile, China’s maize self-sufficiency ratio would decrease to 92% in 2030 as a result of the country’s bioethanol promotion policy. In addition, simulation results indicate that China’s bioethanol promotion policy could increase the world maize price index by 5% and the world bioethanol price index by 4% in 2030. Based on this modeling study, the Chinese government may take measures in advance to prepare for large-scale maize imports, adjust its strategy in order to make better use of the international market, and strengthen international trade and stock cooperation with maize import regions and countries.

Keywords: Bioethanol policy; Global maize market; Partial equilibrium analysis; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ulture/journal/12571

DOI: 10.1007/s12571-021-01212-5

Access Statistics for this article

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food is currently edited by R.N. Strange

More articles in Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food from Springer, The International Society for Plant Pathology
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

Page updated 2023-11-13
Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:14:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-021-01212-5