Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth

Haowei Sun, Jinghan Ma and Li Wang ()
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Haowei Sun: Northwest A&F University
Jinghan Ma: Northwest A&F University
Li Wang: Northwest A&F University

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2023, vol. 15, issue 3, No 2, 597-612

Abstract: Abstract To address challenges associated with climate change, population growth and decline in international trade linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, determining whether national crop production can meet populations’ requirements and contribute to socio-economic resilience is crucial. Three crop models and three global climate models were used in conjunction with predicted population changes. Compared with wheat production in 2000–2010, total production and per capita wheat production were significantly (P 0.05) from the baseline level (127.9 ± 1.3 kg). The average per capita production in Loess Plateau and Gansu-Xinjiang subregions declined. In contrast, per capita production in the Huanghuai, Southwestern China, and Middle-Lower Yangtze Valleys subregions increased. The results suggest that climate change will increase total wheat production in China, but population change will partly offset the benefits to the grain market. In addition, domestic grain trade will be influenced by both climate and population changes. Wheat supply capacity will decline in the main supply areas. Further research is required to address effects of the changes on more crops and in more countries to obtain deeper understanding of the implications of climate change and population growth for global food production and assist formulation of robust policies to enhance food security.

Keywords: Food security; Potential yield; Inverse distance weighted interpolation; Grain trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s12571-023-01351-x

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