Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

Tony W. Carr (), Felicity Addo, Amanda Palazzo, Peter Havlik, Katya Pérez-Guzmán, Zakari Ali, Rosemary Green, Genevieve Hadida, Alcade C. Segnon, Robert Zougmoré and Pauline Scheelbeek
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Tony W. Carr: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Felicity Addo: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Amanda Palazzo: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Katya Pérez-Guzmán: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Zakari Ali: Nutrition & Planetary Health Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Rosemary Green: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Genevieve Hadida: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Alcade C. Segnon: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Robert Zougmoré: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Pauline Scheelbeek: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2024, vol. 16, issue 3, No 9, 704 pages

Abstract: Abstract With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply–demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia’s food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.

Keywords: Food security; Food system model; Climate change adaptation; Crop productivity; Diets; Food imports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1

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