A network analysis of external shocks on the dynamics and resilience of the global staple food trade

Xuxia Li, Huimin Wang, Ali Kharrazi, Brian D. Fath, Guijun Liu, Gang Liu (), Yi Xiao and Xiaoying Lai
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Xuxia Li: Tianjin University
Huimin Wang: Tianjin University
Ali Kharrazi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Brian D. Fath: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Guijun Liu: Tianjin University
Gang Liu: Tianjin University
Yi Xiao: Tianjin University
Xiaoying Lai: Tianjin University

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2024, vol. 16, issue 4, No 2, 845-865

Abstract: Abstract International food trade plays a crucial role in enhancing global food security by connecting regions with diverse agricultural capabilities and resource endowments. This study employs complex network analysis and ecological network resilience to investigate the historical dynamics of global staple food trade network resilience from 1986 to 2020. Additionally, structural decomposition and econometric analysis are used to explore the drivers of resilience from both internal and external perspectives. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in the resilience dynamics of global staple food trade when faced with external shocks such as COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions. Staple foods, i.e., wheat, rice, and potatoes have demonstrated increased resilience in response to pandemic-related disruptions. However, the aggregated staple food network is more adversely affected by geopolitical tensions compared to the five individual staple food networks, with a more pronounced inhibitory effect on its resilience. Potatoes emerge as the most resilient staple, while soybeans exhibit the lowest resilience. Interestingly, the inclusion of a greater variety of staple foods in the aggregated basket does not necessarily enhance resilience. For instance, integrating potatoes, characterized by high network efficiency, increases resilience, whereas integrating soybeans, with low network efficiency, reduces resilience. Furthermore, the diversity of trade flows and trade partners plays a crucial role in enhancing resilience. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to bolster the resilience of the global food trade network.

Keywords: Staple foods; Global food trade; Complex network analysis; Ecological network resilience; Geopolitical tensions; External shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01462-z

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