Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou (), Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa () and Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju ()
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Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou: International Food Policy Research Institute
Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa: International Food Policy Research Institute
Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju: National Institute for Legislative and Democratic

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2025, vol. 17, issue 1, No 15, 275-292

Abstract: Abstract Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

Keywords: Price shocks; Policy interventions; Food security; CGE; Nigeria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01497-2

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