A bio-economic ‘war game’ model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale

David C. Cook (), Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Oscar N. Villalta, Shuang Liu, Jacqueline Edwards and Savi Maharaj
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David C. Cook: Department of Agriculture and Food
Jean-Philippe Aurambout: Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria
Oscar N. Villalta: Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria
Shuang Liu: CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences
Jacqueline Edwards: Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria
Savi Maharaj: The University of Stirling

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2016, vol. 8, issue 1, No 6, 37-48

Abstract: Abstract Loss of area freedom from invasive alien species can have serious food security implications and place huge responsibility on incursion response managers. They make critical decisions despite profound uncertainty surrounding invasion ecology, surveillance and control technology effectiveness and human behaviour. We propose a spatially-explicit model that can aid response managers in devising and testing management strategies in a virtual world where the costs of failure are negligible. We apply the model in a group-based decision setting in which participants practise responding to fictional disease incursions in a pome fruit production area in Australia. Using the model, the response management group was able to develop mutually satisfactory rules of thumb for the use of quarantine and destruction zones and for when to withdraw resources from eradication efforts.

Keywords: Biosecurity; Agent-based modelling; Pest and disease management; Invasive alien species; Landscape pathology; Plant health; NetLogo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s12571-015-0524-z

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