Comparison of the modeled potential yield versus the actual yield of maize in Northeast China and the implications for national food security

Hongdan Li, Wenjiao Shi, Bing Wang, Tingting An, Shuang Li, Shuangyi Li and Jingkuan Wang ()
Additional contact information
Hongdan Li: Shenyang Agricultural University
Wenjiao Shi: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Bing Wang: Shenyang Agricultural University
Tingting An: Shenyang Agricultural University
Shuang Li: Shenyang Urban Planning Design & Research Institute
Shuangyi Li: Shenyang Agricultural University
Jingkuan Wang: Shenyang Agricultural University

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2017, vol. 9, issue 1, No 10, 99-114

Abstract: Abstract A precise spatial knowledge of potential yield and actual yield is crucial to assessing an increase in grain yield and is relevant to national food security. In this paper, the potential maize yields at the county level in 2013 in Northeast China were estimated using a Miami model in combination with an integrated fertility index and the effect of chemical fertilizers on yield increase. Then, the spatial characteristics of the climate, farmland and grain production potential were presented, and the potential yield increase and food security implications were analyzed. The estimated production potentials of the climate, farmland and grain in 2013 were approximately 4.65 × 103–13.06 × 103 kg/ha, 2.77 × 103–9.38 × 103 kg/ha, and 2.97 × 103–12.1 × 103 kg/ha, respectively, whereas the actual maize yield in 2013 was 1.50 × 103–8.60 × 103 kg/ha, accounting for 41.86–95.84 % of the grain production potential. The total average potential maize increase in Northeast China was 3.32 × 103 kg/ha, measured from the difference between the climate production potential and the actual yield. Furthermore, the main regions with lower surplus production but a higher potential for increase were located in the eastern Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. In addition, the surplus production, which was 136.56 million tons, could feed 341.4 million people in other areas of China. In conclusion, we suggest that improving access to agronomic practices (such as fertilizer and high-yielding seed) and developing agricultural policies and strategies could increase the maize yield and further narrow the yield gap.

Keywords: Production potential; Increase potential; Food security; Northeast China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-016-0632-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-016-0632-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ulture/journal/12571

DOI: 10.1007/s12571-016-0632-4

Access Statistics for this article

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food is currently edited by R.N. Strange

More articles in Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food from Springer, The International Society for Plant Pathology
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().