A Monte Carlo analysis on the impact of climate change on future crop choice and water use in Uzbekistan

Donna Mitchell (), Ryan B. Williams, Darren Hudson and Phillip Johnson
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Donna Mitchell: Texas Tech University
Ryan B. Williams: Texas Tech University
Phillip Johnson: Texas Tech University

Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, 2017, vol. 9, issue 4, No 5, 697-709

Abstract: Abstract Central Asia is considered a hot spot for severe water stress. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), over the next century this region is expected to see a rise in temperatures and experience lower amounts of rainfall, creating a more arid climate. Regional agricultural policies have dominated water resource use. The impact of climate change coupled with market distorting economic policies, inefficient irrigation systems, and lack of water rights, could lead to social instability in the region. This analysis employs two downscaled climate projections and two Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to simulate the impact of climate change on crop production, water use, and future crop allocations in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. Drought scenarios show drastic changes in crop productivity and producer profitability. If production quotas are removed, this region has the ability to become self-sufficient in wheat production, increasing its capacity to achieve food security.

Keywords: Climate change; Monte Carlo; Food security; Water scarcity; Central Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0690-2

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