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Poisson autoregressive process modeling via the penalized conditional maximum likelihood procedure

Xinyang Wang, Dehui Wang and Haixiang Zhang
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Xinyang Wang: Mathematics School of Jilin University
Dehui Wang: Mathematics School of Jilin University
Haixiang Zhang: Tianjin University

Statistical Papers, 2020, vol. 61, issue 1, No 13, 245-260

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we consider the penalized estimation procedure for Poisson autoregressive model with sparse parameter structure. We study the theoretical properties of penalized conditional maximum likelihood (PCML) with several different penalties. We show that the penalized estimators perform as well as the true model was known. We establish the oracle properties of PCML estimators. Some simulation studies are conducted to verify the proposed procedure. A real data example is also provided.

Keywords: Integer-valued time series; Penalty function; Poisson autoregressive; Oracle properties (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s00362-017-0938-0

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