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Testing omitted variables in VARs

Andrea Beccarini ()
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Andrea Beccarini: University of Muenster

Statistical Papers, 2024, vol. 65, issue 5, No 17, 3093-3109

Abstract: Abstract A procedure is outlined aiming at testing the bias due to omitted variables in vector autoregressions. The procedure consists first of filtering a vector of omitted variables and then testing the bias. The test does not rely on the availability of the omitted variables, and is based on a comparison between maximum-likelihood with Kalman filter vector autoregression and linear vector autoregression estimates. The empirical part considers two illustrative examples: a univariate regression analysis, based on the rational expectation-augmented Phillips curve; and a VAR with output, inflation and interest rates where a “price puzzle” arises.

Keywords: Kalman filter; Hausman test; Omitted variable bias; Phillips curve; Price puzzle; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C34 C52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s00362-023-01513-1

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