Bayesian and frequentist inference derived from the maximum entropy principle with applications to propagating uncertainty about statistical methods

David R. Bickel ()
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David R. Bickel: University of North Carolina at Greensboro, The Graduate School

Statistical Papers, 2024, vol. 65, issue 8, No 24, 5389-5407

Abstract: Abstract Using statistical methods to analyze data requires considering the data set to be randomly generated from a probability distribution that is unknown but idealized according to a mathematical model consisting of constraints, assumptions about the distribution. Since the choice of such a model is up to the scientist, there is an understandable bias toward choosing models that make scientific conclusions appear more certain than they really are. There is a similar bias in the scientist’s choice of whether to use Bayesian or frequentist methods. This article provides tools to mitigate both of those biases on the basis of a principle of information theory. It is found that the same principle unifies Bayesianism with the fiducial version of frequentism. The principle arguably overcomes not only the main objections against fiducial inference but also the main Bayesian objection against the use of confidence intervals.

Keywords: Approximate confidence distribution; Certainty distribution; Distribution of certainty; Fiducial inference; Foundations of statistics; Ordered principle of maximum entropy; p-Hacking; Replication crisis; Theory of errors; Uncertainty quantification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s00362-024-01597-3

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