Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

Thu Hien Dao (), Frédéric Docquier, Mathilde Maurel and Pierre Schaus ()
Additional contact information
Thu Hien Dao: Université catholique de Louvain
Pierre Schaus: Université catholique de Louvain

Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2021, vol. 157, issue 2, No 7, 417-449

Abstract: Abstract This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exercises, which demonstrate that our model fits very well the past and ongoing trends in international migration, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. Then, we describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with the backcasts, our world migration prospects are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes. Using immigration restrictions or development policies to curb these pressures requires sealing borders or triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants’ countries of origin. Increasing migration is thus a likely phenomenon for the 21st century.

Keywords: International migration; Migration prospects; World economy; Inequality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 F24 J11 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
Working Paper: Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography (2021)
Working Paper: Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:weltar:v:157:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-020-00402-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10290/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1

Access Statistics for this article

Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) is currently edited by Paul Bergin, Holger Görg, Cédric Tille and Gerald Willmann

More articles in Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) from Springer, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().