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Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

Thu Hien Dao, Frédéric Docquier, Mathilde Maurel () and Pierre Schaus
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Thu Hien Dao: UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, University of Bielefeld - Universität Bielefeld = Bielefeld University
Frédéric Docquier: LISER - Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research
Mathilde Maurel: FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Pierre Schaus: UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exercises, which demonstrate that our model fits very well the past and ongoing trends in international migration, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. Then, we describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with the backcasts, our world migration prospects are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes. Using immigration restrictions or development policies to curb these pressures requires sealing borders or triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants' countries of origin. Increasing migration is thus a likely phenomenon for the 21st century.

Keywords: International migration; Migration prospects; World economy; Inequality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03199108
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Published in Review of World Economics, Springer Verlag, 2021, 157, pp.417-449. ⟨10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03199108

DOI: 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1

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