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Statistical Modeling to Inform Optimal Game Strategy: Markov Plays H-O-R-S-E

Thaddeus Tarpey and R. Todd Ogden

The American Statistician, 2016, vol. 70, issue 2, 181-186

Abstract: We illustrate practical uses of logistic regression and Markov chains by applying these concepts to the problem of developing optimal strategy in the popular basketball game of H-O-R-S-E. Based on data collected by the authors, we estimate model parameters for each author, describe strategies of optimizing each author’s probability of winning, and calculate the stationary distribution of a Markov chain that arises from the game.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2016.1148629

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