Athlete Recruitment and the Myth of the Sophomore Peak

Monnie McGee, Benjamin Williams and Jacy Sparks

The American Statistician, 2023, vol. 77, issue 2, 182-191

Abstract: Conventional wisdom dispersed by fans and coaches in the stands at almost any high school track meet suggests female athletes typically peak around 10th grade or earlier (15 years of age), particularly for distance runners, and male athletes continuously improve. Given that universities in the United States typically recruit track and field athletes from high school teams, it is important to understand the age of peak performance at the high school level. Athletes are often recruited starting in their sophomore year of high school and individuals develop at different rates during adolescence; however, the individual development factor is usually not taken into account during recruitment. In this study, we curate data on event times for high school track and field athletes from the years 2011 to 2019 to determine the trajectory of fastest times for male and female athletes in the 200m, 400m, 800m, and 1600m races. We show, through visualizations and models, that, for most athletes, the sophomore peak is a myth. Performance is mostly dependent on the individual athlete. That said, the trajectories cluster into four or five types, depending on the race distance. We explain the significance of the types for future recruitment.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2022.2127896

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