Hidden Markov Models for Low-Frequency Earthquake Recurrence

Jessica Allen and Ting Wang

The American Statistician, 2024, vol. 78, issue 1, 100-110

Abstract: Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small magnitude earthquakes with frequencies of 1–10 Hertz which often occur in overlapping sequence forming persistent seismic tremors. They provide insights into large earthquake processes along plate boundaries. LFEs occur stochastically in time, often forming temporally recurring clusters. The occurrence times are typically modeled using point processes and their intensity functions. We demonstrate how to use hidden Markov models coupled with visualization techniques to model inter-arrival times directly, classify LFE occurrence patterns along the San Andreas Fault, and perform model selection. We highlight two subsystems of LFE activity corresponding to periods of alternating episodic and quiescent behavior.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2023.2282631

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