Play Call Strategies and Modeling for Target Outcomes in Football

Preston Biro and Stephen G. Walker

The American Statistician, 2024, vol. 78, issue 1, 66-75

Abstract: This article considers one-off actions for a football coach who is asking for a specific outcome from a play. This will be in the form of a minimum gain in yards, usually in order to gain a first down. Using a random utility model approach we propose the play to be called is the one which maximizes the probability of the desired outcome. We specifically focus on pass plays, which requires the modeling of outcomes in terms of yards gained, for which we use the family of generalized gamma distributions. The data and results relate to the Fall 2021 Presbyterian College football team, in which we leverage specific information pertaining to the offensive playbook.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2023.2223582

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