Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870-2003

Markus Baltzer and Gerhard Kling

Applied Economics Letters, 2007, vol. 14, issue 6, 401-404

Abstract: Our study tries to quantify the predictability of economic growth and links it to the capability of regimes to fight against inflation. A regime with a high persistence of inflation and, hence, low credibility exhibits a high level of predictability of economic growth using the yield curve as indicator. Based on structural VAR models, we evaluate the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany from 1870 to 2003. The period of the Classical Gold Standard exhibited the highest credibility compared to the interwar period, the Bretton Woods and free float era. The reliability of the Bretton Woods agreement deteriorated years before the official breakdown in 1971.

Date: 2007
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article& ... 40C6AD35DC6213A474B5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:6:p:401-404

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20

DOI: 10.1080/13504850500461456

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics Letters is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics Letters from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().