Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries

Markus Haavio, Caterina Mendicino and Maria Teresa Punzi

Applied Economics Letters, 2014, vol. 21, issue 6, 407-412

Abstract: This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit anaylsis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.864025

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