Individual discount rates forecast county-level unemployment change

Scott Loveridge and Tim Komarek ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2016, vol. 23, issue 18, 1301-1304

Abstract: We use a national survey to estimate individuals’ discount rates for job creation in the community and test whether impatience for jobs is associated county-level unemployment change outcomes in subsequent years. Our results suggest that impatience for jobs is a possible forecast variable for future modelling efforts. To explore whether the impatience effect is general or simply limited to attitudes about local job creation, the same survey asked about discount rates for local amenity development and personal financial windfall. We find that job growth discount rates perform best for forecasting.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1153781

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