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Is good news for Donald Trump bad news for the Peso?

Thomas Beard, Hyeongwoo Kim () and Michael Stern ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2017, vol. 24, issue 19, 1363-1368

Abstract: We study the relationship between Mr. Trump’s election prospects and the US dollar-peso exchange rate, controlling for other factors that determine overall exchange rates. Increases in Mr. Trump’s probability of winning generate short-run, but statistically significant economically meaningful, disturbances in the US dollar-peso exchange rate. We also provide evidence on Mr. Trump’s effects on Mexican equity markets, premia for Mexican sovereign default risks, exchange rate volatility.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1279262

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