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Is Good News for Donald Trump Bad News for the Peso?

Thomas Beard, Hyeongwoo Kim () and Michael Stern ()

No auwp2016-13, Auburn Economics Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Auburn University

Abstract: We study the dynamic relationship between Mr. Trump’s prospects and the US dollar-peso exchange rate, controlling for other factors that determine the overall US dollar exchange rates. Increases in Mr. Trump’s probability of winning generate short-run but statistically significant and economically meaningful disturbances in the US dollar-peso exchange rate.

Keywords: Donald Trump; PredictIt; Peso; Vector Autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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