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Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment

Annarita Colasante, Simone Alfarano (), Eva Camacho Cuena () and Mauro Gallegati ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2018, vol. 25, issue 10, 681-687

Abstract: We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects’ short- and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium is not a meaningful description for the whole time spectrum of subjects’ expectations; (ii) they are, instead, better described by an anchor-and-adjustment learning scheme; (iii) subjects exhibit a higher degree of heterogeneity in their long-run expectations vis-à-vis short-run expectations.

Date: 2018
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Working Paper: Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (2016) Downloads
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