Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

Annarita Colasante (), Simone Alfarano, Eva Camacho-Cuena and Mauro Gallegati
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Eva Camacho Cuena ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment (LtFE) using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium (REE) is not a meaningful description for subjects' expectations, (ii) which are, instead, better described by an adaptive learning scheme. (iii) Subjects exhibit a higher degree of inertia when revising long-run expectations vis-a-vis short-run expectations.

Keywords: Experiment; Expectations; Coordination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E37 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:75621

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