Nowcasting the trajectory of the COVID-19 recovery

Peter Fuleky

Applied Economics Letters, 2022, vol. 29, issue 11, 1037-1041

Abstract: I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from the COVID-19 induced downturn. The index is the first principal component extracted from 18 daily and weekly state-level time series, it captures about 80% of the variation in the sample, it is available with a four-day lag, and it predicts the changes in nonfarm payrolls, the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, and excise tax revenues.

Date: 2022
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Related works:
Working Paper: Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery (2020)
Working Paper: Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery (2020)
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1907278

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