Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery

Peter Fuleky

No 202022, Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics

Abstract: I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from the COVID-19 induced downturn. The index is the first principal component extracted from 18 daily and weekly state-level time series, it captures about 80% of the variation in the sample, it is available with a four-day lag, and it leads the changes in nonfarm payrolls and the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.

Keywords: coincident index; principal component analysis; high-frequency data; nowcasting; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 C82 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_20-22.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Nowcasting the trajectory of the COVID-19 recovery (2022)
Working Paper: Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery (2020)
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