Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts

Kajal Lahiri, Junyan Zhang and Yongchen Zhao

Applied Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 30, issue 10, 1353-1357

Abstract: We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980–2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has reversed in recent years. The level of informational inefficiency has been pervasive during 1990–2009, although it shows signs of improvement after 2010.

Date: 2023
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Working Paper: Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts (2021)
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2053649

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