Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts

Kajal Lahiri, Junyan Zhang and Yongchen Zhao

No 9415, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has reversed. The level of informational inefficiency was pervasive during 1990-2009, although it shows signs of improvement after 2010.

Keywords: social security trust funds; long-range solvency forecasts; Nordhaus test; forecast efficiency; fixed-event forecast revisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 E66 H55 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-for and nep-mac
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Journal Article: Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9415

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