Geopolitical risk and remittances in the Philippines: evidence from quantile causality

Selçuk Akçay and Emre Karabulutoğlu

Applied Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 32, issue 8, 1162-1167

Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic causality link between global geopolitical risk and its two subindices and international remittance inflows in the Philippines, using monthly data from January 1989 to December 2022. We employ a Granger-causality in quantiles approach and find that higher variations (either positive or negative) in global geopolitical risk and its two subindices significantly Granger cause changes in remittances, implying that global geopolitical risk and its two subindices offer applicable value for predicting remittance inflows to the Philippines.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2024.2302872

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