Does a multi-sectoral design improve indicator-based forecasts of the GDP growth rate? Evidence from Switzerland

Michael Graff

Applied Economics, 2010, vol. 42, issue 21, 2759-2781

Abstract: This article presents a multi-sectoral composite indicator for the Swiss GDP growth rate, targeting a lead of two quarters. The in-sample period ranges from 1991 to 2002 and 14 data points are reserved as out of sample to assess the forecasting performance. The results appear promising, in terms of both phase and amplitude. Comparisons with two other uni-sectoral composite leading indicators for the same reference series-the traditional KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) barometer as published until March 2006 and a uni-sectoral composite indicator computed from the same indicators as the multi-sectoral instrument-show that the new approach is superior to the alternatives, which is due to both its broader information basis as well as to the structure that is imposed by the multi-sectoral design. Yet, there are pronounced differences regarding the accuracy of the sectoral forecasts, so that there is scope for improvement.

Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840801964641 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:21:p:2759-2781

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

DOI: 10.1080/00036840801964641

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().