On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts

Jan Christoph Ruelke, Christian Pierdzioch and Georg Stadtmann

Applied Economics, 2012, vol. 44, issue 21, 2757-2765

Abstract: We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-, medium- and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.

Date: 2012
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2011.566201 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Journal Article: On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts (2012)
Working Paper: On the Internal Consistency of Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts (2011)
Working Paper: On the Internal Consistency of Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:applec:v:44:y:2012:i:21:p:2757-2765

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.566201

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Economics is currently edited by Anita Phillips

More articles in Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().