On the Internal Consistency of Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts

Jan Christoph Ruelke (), Christian Pierdzioch and Georg Stadtmann ()
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Jan Christoph Ruelke: Department of Economics - WHU - School of Manangement
Georg Stadtmann: Institute for Industrial Organization - WHU

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Abstract: We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-term, medium-term,and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyze whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.

Keywords: Social; Sciences; &; Humanities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06-14
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00708542v1
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Published in Applied Economics, 2011, pp.1. ⟨10.1080/00036846.2011.566201⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts (2012)
Journal Article: On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts (2012)
Working Paper: On the Internal Consistency of Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00708542

DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.566201

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