Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break

David Winkelmann, Christian Deutscher and Marius Ötting

Applied Economics, 2021, vol. 53, issue 26, 3054-3064

Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 led to a shutdown of economic activities in Europe. This included the sports sector since public gatherings were prohibited. The German Bundesliga was among the first sport leagues realizing a restart without spectators. Several recent studies suggest that the home advantage of teams eroded for the remaining matches. Our paper analyses the reaction by bookmakers to the disappearance of such home advantage. We show that bookmakers had problems to adjust the betting odds in accordance with the disappeared home advantage, opening opportunities for profitable betting strategies.

Date: 2021
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Working Paper: Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break (2020)
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1873234

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