Keynes's activity on the cotton market and the theory of the 'normal backwardation': 1921-1929

Carlo Cristiano and Nerio Naldi

The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2014, vol. 21, issue 6, 1039-1059

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess to what extent Keynes, or any other speculator, could ever have used the theory of futures contracts he formulated in the 1920s as the guiding principle for their investment strategy and what light the theory can shed on speculative behaviour. To this end, we focus our attention on Keynes' speculations on the cotton market. Our main conclusion is that Keynes did not base his speculation in cotton exclusively on the assumption that futures prices were downward biased in comparison with spot prices, as his theory would predict.

Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2014.966127

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