Measuring the regional economic impacts of high-speed rail using a dynamic SCGE model: the case of China

Zhenhua Chen

European Planning Studies, 2019, vol. 27, issue 3, 483-512

Abstract: High-Speed Rail (HSR) has experienced a rapid development in many countries in the world, but how can planners and decision makers better understand the regional economic impact of the gigantic system remains a challenge. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework to assess the regional economic impacts of HSR using China as an example. The regional economic impacts of HSR are evaluated under a dynamic and spatial computable general equilibrium-modelling framework. Such a framework provides a comprehensive assessment of the impacts in terms of both temporal and spatial variations. The assessment provides an ex post evaluation of the impacts based on the actual data reflecting the infrastructure development and operation in the period 2002–2013. The research findings confirm that HSR infrastructure development in China has generated a positive regional economic impact. The growth rate of the real GDP stimulated by rail infrastructure investment were found particularly substantial in the southwest, but relatively small in the developed eastern regions. Conversely, the real GDP level change was found to be relatively large in the developed regions, such as the south and the east. The disaggregated analysis shows that the contributions to regional economic growth are primarily derived from the productivity increase in rail transport sector and the stimulus effect of rail infrastructure capital investment. The research findings provide implications for future HSR development in both Europe and China.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/09654313.2018.1562655

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