National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market

Andrew Weinbach and Rodney Paul

International Gambling Studies, 2009, vol. 9, issue 1, 55-66

Abstract: The market for totals, over/under bets, is examined for American college football. The sample is separated into nationally televised games on major networks, those games televised regionally or on smaller networks, and games not televised. A slight non-significant bias toward the over is observed for the sample as a whole. The bias is only statistically significant for nationally televised games on major networks. This bias to bet the over is likely due to a preference for scoring in games that bettors can watch on television. Explanations for this bias and the rejection of the efficient markets hypothesis found in this market are discussed from the point of view of the traditional sportsbook model and from the sportsbook model proposed by Levitt [Levitt, S.D. (2004). The Economic Journal , 114 , 223--246]. These results demonstrate how bettor preferences can influence markets, and offer a possible avenue of research to those seeking to understand the satisfaction sought by gamblers.

Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1080/14459790802656887

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