Forecasting electricity consumption with extra-model information provided by consumers

Victor Guerrero and Edmundo Berumen

Journal of Applied Statistics, 1998, vol. 25, issue 2, 283-299

Abstract: Univariate time series models make efficient use of available historical records of electricity consumption for short-term forecasting. However, the information (expectations) provided by electricity consumers in an energy-saving survey, even though qualitative, was considered to be particularly important, because the consumers' perception of the future may take into account the changing economic conditions. Our approach to forecasting electricity consumption combines historical data with expectations of the consumers in an optimal manner, using the technique of restricted forecasts. The same technique can be applied in some other forecasting situations in which additional information-besides the historical record of a variable-is available in the form of expectations.

Date: 1998
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DOI: 10.1080/02664769823269

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