Unit roots and double smooth transitions

David Harvey and Terence Mills

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2002, vol. 29, issue 5, 675-683

Abstract: Techniques for testing the null hypothesis of difference stationarity against stationarity around some deterministic function have received much attention. In particular, unit root tests where the alternative is stationarity around a smooth transition in a linear trend have recently been proposed to permit the possibility of non-instantaneous structural change. In this paper we develop tests extending such an approach in order to admit more than one structural change. The analysis is motivated by time series that appear to undergo two smooth transitions in the linear trend, and the application of the new tests to two such series (average global temperature and US consumer prices) highlights the benefits of this double transition extension.

Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1080/02664760120098739

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