Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality

Peter Congdon

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2004, vol. 31, issue 6, 603-622

Abstract: This paper considers the modelling of mortality rates classified by age, time, and small area with a view to developing life table parameters relevant to assessing trends in inequalities in life chances. In particular, using a fully Bayes perspective, one may assess the stochastic variation in small area life table parameters, such as life expectancies, and also formally assess whether trends in indices of inequality in mortality are significant. Modelling questions include choice between random walk priors for age and time effects as against non-linear regression functions, questions of identifiability when several random effects are present in the death rates model, and the choice of model when both within and out-of-sample performance may be important. A case study application involves 44 small areas in North East London and mortality in five sub-periods (1986-88, 1989-91, 1992-94, 1995-97, 1998-2000) between 1986 and 2000, with the final period used for assessing out-of-sample performance.

Keywords: Apc Models; Mortality; Life Tables; Random Effects Model; Cohort; Bayesian (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1080/1478881042000214695

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