Quick counts from non-selected polling stations

Jose Manuel Pavia-Miralles and Beatriz Larraz-Iribas

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2008, vol. 35, issue 4, 383-405

Abstract: Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both campaign and exit polls affecting, among others, British, French, and Spanish elections could be found. This has seriously damaged their image. Therefore, procedures should be used that minimize errors, especially on election night when errors are more noticeable, in order to maintain people's trust in surveys. This paper proposes a method to obtain quick and early outcome forecasts on the election night. The idea is to partly sample some (whatever) polling stations and use the consistency that polling stations show between elections to predict the final results. Model accuracy is analysed through simulation using seven different types of samples in four elections. The efficacy of the technique is also tested predicting the 2005 Eusko Legebiltzarra elections from real data. Results confirm that the procedure generates highly reliable and accurate forecasts. Furthermore, compared with the classical quick count strategy, the method is revealed as much more robust and precise.

Keywords: election forecasts; error observation; generalized linear regression; pseudodata augmentation; Spanish elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1080/02664760701834881

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