Spatio-temporal improvised explosive device monitoring: improving detection to minimise attacks
Matthew Benigni and
Reinhard Furrer
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2012, vol. 39, issue 11, 2493-2508
Abstract:
The improvised explosive device (IED) is a weapon of strategic influence on today's battlefield. IED detonations occur predominantly on roads, footpaths, or trails. Therefore, locations are best described when constrained to the road network, and some spaces on the network are more dangerous at specific times of the day. We propose a statistical model that reduces the spatial location to one dimension and uses a cyclic time as a second dimension. Based on the Poisson process methodology, we develop normalised, inhomogeneous, bivariate intensity functions measuring the threat of attack to support resourcing decisions. A simulation and an analysis of attacks on a main supply route in Baghdad are given to illustrate the proposed methods. Additionally, we provide an overview of the growing demand for the analysis efforts in support of operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and provide an extensive literature review of developments in counter-IED analysis.
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:11:p:2493-2508
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DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2012.719222
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