Power-law scaling behavior analysis of financial time series model by voter interacting dynamic system

Hongli Niu and Jun Wang

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013, vol. 40, issue 10, 2188-2203

Abstract: We investigate the power-law scaling behaviors of returns for a financial price process which is developed by the voter interacting dynamic system in comparison with the real financial market index (Shanghai Composite Index). The voter system is a continuous time Markov process, which originally represents a voter's attitude on a particular topic, that is, voters reconsider their opinions at times distributed according to independent exponential random variables. In this paper, the detrended fluctuation analysis method is employed to explore the long range power-law correlations of return time series for different values of parameters in the financial model. The findings show no indication or very weak long-range power-law correlations for the simulated returns but strong long-range dependence for the absolute returns. The multiplier distribution is studied to demonstrate directly the existence of scale invariance in the actual data of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the simulation data of the model by comparison. Moreover, the Zipf analysis is applied to investigate the statistical behaviors of frequency functions and the distributions of the returns. By a comparative study, the simulation data for our constructed price model exhibits very similar behaviors to the real stock index, this indicates somewhat rationality of our model to the market application.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.809515

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