Lower posterior death probabilities from a quick medical response in road traffic accidents

Antonio S.M. Arroyo, Antonio Garc�a-Ferrer, Aránzazu Fernández and Rocío Sánchez-Mangas

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013, vol. 40, issue 1, 40-58

Abstract: Introduction : We use data from Spain on roads and motorways traffic accidents in May 2004 to quantify the statistical association between quick medical response time and mortality rate. Method : Probit and logit parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method in which samples from the posterior densities are obtained through an MCMC simulation scheme. We provide posterior credible intervals and posterior partial effects of a quick medical response at several time levels over which we express our prior beliefs. Results : A reduction of 5 min, from a 25-min response-time level, is associated with lower posterior probabilities of death in roads and motorways accidents of 24% and 30%, respectively.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2012.727788

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